Building Refuges to Survive Global Catastrophes

Global catastrophes are events that could severely cripple or destroy the foundations of civilization. Potential global catastrophes include nuclear winter, large asteroid impacts, super-volcanic eruptions, and pandemics. Humans may not necessarily become extinct under such scenarios, but, without adequate advance preparation, rebuilding civilization following such a catastrophe could prove difficult.

In a paper published in a special issue of the journal Futures, my co-authors and I present several concepts of “Isolated refuges for surviving global catastrophes.” Although catastrophic events could destroy a significant portion of the human population, isolated refuges would provide a way to protect a small group of humans so that they survive long enough to rebuild civilization. We discuss several factors that are critical for ensuring the success of a refuge, including self-sufficiency, a continuous population, secrecy, and adequate monitoring of the outside world.

We also discuss the concept of surface-independence, suggesting that an underground, underwater, or space-based refuge might provide the greatest protection of its inhabitants from the effects of global catastrophes. Any of these refuges could significantly make the human species more resilient to catastrophic threats. Space-based refuges provide an exceptional degree of isolation from Earth, and the cost of such an extraterrestrial refuge might be best “piggybacked” onto existing scientific endeavors that seek to establish a permanent presence on the moon or elsewhere in space.

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